Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8f1b…dec3 crypto 993 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$763 (+0%) realized +$763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%933W / 60L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$159
14 days+$196
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$638
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 359 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 975 +0.2% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.2%
all 993 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses933 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)993 / 993
History coverage99d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 993 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $199 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $199 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $188 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $138 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $194 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $168 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $198 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $143 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $199 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $198 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $198 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $198 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $188 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $138 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $194 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.47 · official $201.22 (match) · 2805 history records