Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f20…bdb4 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
politics 22% −$6
other 19% +$1
sports 14% −$5
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 28 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 69 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 75 -4.9% -14.0% 37% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage527d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $118 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $27 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $61 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $95 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $92 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $69 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $19 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $73 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $16 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $10 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $19 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $21 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records