Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8F 0x8f23…7547 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$49 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2
sports 34% −$44
world 20% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 0% -17.3%
≤90d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 0% -12.3%
all 6 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 0% -12.3%
10% -31.8% 0% -20.7%
15% -38.4% 0% -28.3%
20% -44.5% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage62d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $256 $260 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $463 −$2 -0%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 25 $93 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $9 $0 -1%
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $558 +$6 +1%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 17 $358 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $256 1h
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $461 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $463 16d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) BUY Rosenborg BK 5¢ $26 23d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5) BUY Rosenborg BK 5¢ $26 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $48 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $45 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $47 23d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 38d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 38d
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC 99¢ $558 61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $358 61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $358 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.88 · official $259.88 (match) · 16 history records