Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f24…6e22 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$592 (-11%) realized −$592 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate37%20W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$351
crypto 36% −$349
other 11% +$17
world 1% +$11
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 42% -12.9%
≤30d 54 -21.2% -28.7% 37% 20% -22.4%
≤90d 54 -21.2% -28.7% 37% 20% -22.4%
all 54 -21.2% -28.7% 37% 20% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 20% -22.4%
10% -35.5% 15% -29.8%
15% -41.7% 9% -36.6%
20% -47.5% 6% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$30 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses20 / 34
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage24d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $109 +$36 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$32 -26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $70 +$11 +16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$50 +248%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$79 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $45 −$14 -30%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $56 +$34 +60%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $64 −$3 -4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $120 −$57 -48%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 31 $104 −$29 -28%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $628 −$318 -51%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win? May 28 $272 +$96 +36%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal May 28 $46 −$40 -86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 28 $59 −$19 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $360 −$118 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 28? May 27 $11 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $519 +$35 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $52 −$5 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $81 −$2 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 26 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 26? May 26 $9 −$8 -94%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 26 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $51 −$2 -4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $604 −$71 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $11 +$1 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 26 $100 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 26 $100 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $117 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 25 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 25 $12 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 25 $24 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 25 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 25 $22 +$9 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $55 20m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 28m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 40m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $42 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $42 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $47 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $47 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $7 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $59 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $6 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $70 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $79 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.52 · official $74.52 (match) · 202 history records