Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8F 0x8f24…3a09 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-17%) realized −$69 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -58.7% -62.7% 33% 33% -32.1%
≤30d 3 -58.7% -62.7% 33% 33% -32.1%
≤90d 3 -58.7% -62.7% 33% 33% -32.1%
all 3 -58.7% -62.7% 33% 33% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.7% 33% -32.1%
10% -66.2% 33% -38.6%
15% -69.5% 0% -44.5%
20% -72.5% 0% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$58 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals No 70¢ 68¢ $126 $123 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $93 −$92 -99%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $179 +$43 +24%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $100 27m
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $27 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $19 19h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $74 19h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $222 39h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $60 41h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $60 42h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $60 42h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.63 · official $122.63 (match) · 9 history records