Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f28…ff9a sports 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,187 (+4%) realized +$9,195 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%196W / 94L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$814per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1,104est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,336
7 days+$2,678
14 days+$9,055
30 days+$9,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$3,767
other 41% +$10,375
crypto 1% +$2,246
world 0% −$1,008
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.3% -5.6% 68% 68% +1.4%
≤30d 144 +3.7% -6.1% 71% 70% -3.2%
≤90d 290 +0.4% -9.1% 68% 67% -6.5%
all 290 +0.4% -9.1% 68% 67% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 67% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 59% -15.4%
15% -25.8% 39% -23.6%
20% -33.0% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$905) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$339 vs −$623 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$3,629
Realized+$9,195
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses196 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1,104
Open positions3
Markets (closed)290 / 293
History coverage63d
Avg bet$814
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,550 $1,560 +$10 (+1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $1,495 $1,485 −$10 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $592 $584 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 15 $611 −$19 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $602 +$155 +26%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,271 +$479 +38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,610 +$2,246 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,034 +$1,016 +34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $708 −$698 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $534 −$530 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,568 +$685 +19%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $393 +$156 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $293 +$80 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,640 +$382 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,060 −$1,049 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1,387 +$1,228 +89%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $2,047 −$2,030 -99%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $474 +$81 +17%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 10 $869 +$292 +34%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $333 −$329 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Atmane Jun 08 $291 +$222 +76%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $405 +$309 +76%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 08 $2,161 +$504 +23%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $386 +$331 +86%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $370 −$365 -99%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 07 $279 +$72 +26%
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 07 $376 +$81 +21%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 07 $1,285 +$535 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 07 $2,736 +$506 +18%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 06 $647 −$642 -99%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $743 +$141 +19%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,148 +$223 +19%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 05 $5,488 +$926 +17%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $458 +$666 +145%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $995 +$288 +29%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $133 −$131 -99%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5,004 +$516 +10%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $577 +$244 +42%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 04 $1,688 −$1,674 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2,571 +$1,591 +62%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $280 +$223 +80%
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? Jun 03 $817 +$151 +18%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $1,907 +$398 +21%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,908 +$650 +34%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $734 −$723 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $1,719 +$1,330 +77%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Jelle Sels Jun 02 $2,693 +$701 +26%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $341 −$336 -98%
Will Bulgaria vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 02 $207 +$86 +42%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $473 +$87 +18%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 02 $1,126 +$299 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $120 −$118 -98%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $182 −$180 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $780 58m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $780 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $98 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $98 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $98 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $98 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $98 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $204 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $204 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $611 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $592 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $204 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $204 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $204 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $75 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $4,050 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $120 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $120 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $301 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $301 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $264 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $264 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $264 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,628.72 · official $3,628.72 (match) · 1190 history records