Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f29…1242 politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$15
other 33% −$7
sports 6% −$2
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,014) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage83d
Avg bet$520
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $981 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 17 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 17 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the le May 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $967 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $1,031 −$1 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 02 $130 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $118 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 99¢ $55 46m
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 55m
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $999 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $977 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $740 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $238 2h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $981 2h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,015 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $59 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 27h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $982 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $28 28h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $11 28h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $34 28h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $983 28h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $762 29h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 29h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 29h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 29h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $75 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 2d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records