Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8F 0x8f2a…4f77 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$520 (+35%) realized +$520 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$497per market

Trades / day18.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+52.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+68.2%	+52.1%	100%	100%	+44.7%
≤30d	3	+68.2%	+52.1%	100%	100%	+44.7%
≤90d	3	+68.2%	+52.1%	100%	100%	+44.7%
all	3	+68.2%	+52.1%	100%	100%	+44.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+52.1%	100%	+44.7%
10%	+37.6%	67%	+30.8%
15%	+24.3%	67%	+18.2%
20%	+12.1%	33%	+6.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +68% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$298 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$520

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$497

Trades / day18.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$900	+$337	+38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$245	+$50	+20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$345	+$506	+147%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$738	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	89¢	$218	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	86¢	$281	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$42	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	90¢	$295	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$245	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$51	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$50	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$403	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$488	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	96¢	$156	5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	95¢	$207	5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$26	8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$240	8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$79	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records