Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f2b…a201 world 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-4%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$70
other 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.9% -27.6% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 3 -19.9% -27.6% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 3 -19.9% -27.6% 0% 0% -12.9%
all 3 -19.9% -27.6% 0% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 0% -12.9%
10% -34.5% 0% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -40.8% 0% -28.9%
20% -46.6% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
20.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$32 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$787
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 32¢ 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $529 −$25 -5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $50 −$26 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,974 −$45 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $7 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $50 4m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 28m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $50 43m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $52 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $46 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $50 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $32 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $40 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $40 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $40 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $35 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.40 (match) · 193 history records