Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f2b…9320 other 192 markets active 6d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%3W / 188L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$17
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$10
other 24% −$12
world 20% −$28
economics 14% −$5
sports 8% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
finance 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -20.4% -28.0% 0% 0% -28.0%
≤30d 8 +246.7% +213.7% 12% 12% -12.1%
≤90d 56 +32.3% +19.7% 2% 2% -9.9%
all 191 +8.8% -1.5% 2% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 1% -9.7%
10% -10.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -19.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -27.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses3 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage109d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $72 −$15 -20%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $167 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $150 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $54 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $42 +$6 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $71 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $4 $0 -9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $187 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $61 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $4 $0 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $379 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $115 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $32 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $2 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 09 $91 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 24 $158 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $3,373 −$3 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $264 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $26 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $38 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $1 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $29 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $32 6d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 12d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 25¢ $17 12d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 12d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $48 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $4 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $74 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $3 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $18 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $3 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $7 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $13 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $12 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $1 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $19 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 13d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $1 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $19 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.87 · official $0.00 (match) · 1475 history records