Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f2b…e76d crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$83
sports 32% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 36% 36% -16.4%
≤30d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 36% 36% -16.4%
≤90d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 36% 36% -16.4%
all 35 -10.1% -18.7% 66% 57% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 57% -9.5%
10% -26.5% 26% -18.2%
15% -33.6% 9% -26.1%
20% -40.1% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage224d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $105 +$16 +15%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $65 +$40 +61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 9AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$20 -50%
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 1PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 6AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$7 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Nov 09 $20 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Nov 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Nov 09 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Nov 09 $21 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Nov 08 $43 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 08 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Nov 08 $27 +$4 +14%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 08 $48 +$14 +30%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Nov 08 $25 +$7 +27%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Nov 08 $11 +$3 +28%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Nov 08 $18 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Nov 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Nov 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Nov 08 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 08 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 08 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 08 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Nov 08 $35 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Nov 08 $40 +$4 +11%
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 08 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 08 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7AM ET Nov 08 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5AM ET Nov 08 $15 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $106 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $105 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $65 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $65 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $46 38h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $34 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 67¢ $34 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $38 4d
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 1PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 217d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 223d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $21 223d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 223d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 223d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 223d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $28 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $43 223d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 223d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $48 223d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $27 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $18 223d
XRP Up or Down - November 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $11 223d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $20 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.72 · official $98.72 (match) · 87 history records