Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f31…6231 world 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$13
other 21% +$3
politics 13% −$1
sports 11% +$1
finance 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 0% -9.2%
all 81 -1.9% -11.3% 38% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 50
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage532d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $55 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $119 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $23 −$5 -22%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $113 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $128 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $57 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $158 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $54 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $87 +$4 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $45 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $36 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $54 +$5 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $133 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $41 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $123 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $45 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $55 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $11 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $44 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $13 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $7 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $55 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $38 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $8 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $33 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $50 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $52 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records