Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f36…4ce1 crypto 50 markets active 7d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-3%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$59
30 days−$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$576
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.0% -1.3% 56% 44% -10.2%
≤30d 50 -13.6% -21.9% 50% 42% -21.7%
≤90d 50 -13.6% -21.9% 50% 42% -21.7%
all 50 -13.6% -21.9% 50% 42% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 42% -21.7%
10% -29.3% 36% -29.2%
15% -36.2% 22% -36.0%
20% -42.4% 18% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$56 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage10d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $72 −$44 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $130 −$52 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $93 −$50 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$102 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $78 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$25 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $46 −$13 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$25 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $76 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 02 $42 +$42 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $306 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $203 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $152 +$42 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $119 −$15 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $331 +$106 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 01 $203 +$54 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 01 $105 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 01 $202 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $139 +$103 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $108 −$25 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $76 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 01 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 01 $183 −$105 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $307 −$200 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $62 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $201 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $155 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records