Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f39…1617 sports 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+4%) realized +$70 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%354W / 226L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$43
14 days+$12
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$126
other 19% +$25
weather 18% −$33
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 62% -15.3%
≤30d 330 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 57% -7.3%
≤90d 580 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 57% -6.4%
all 580 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 57% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 57% -6.4%
10% -20.0% 44% -15.4%
15% -27.7% 30% -23.6%
20% -34.8% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses354 / 226
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)580 / 583
History coverage56d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 100¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+33%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 100¢ $34 $62 +$28 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $47 +$23 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $95 +$19 +20%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $61 −$20 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Emma Raducanu vs. Kamilla Rakhimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +44%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes: O/U 51.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Northampton Saints win? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Dziki Warszawa vs. Arka Gdynia Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $100 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $34 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $46 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $3 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $1 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $3 7h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 55¢ $3 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 78¢ $3 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $4 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $4 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 84¢ $4 7h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 75¢ $42 11h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Barbora Krejcikova 50¢ $42 11h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $26 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $91 19h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $35 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $7 20h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Haiti 89¢ $3 21h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $3 21h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.96 · official $225.96 (match) · 1426 history records