Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f3a…4a12 other 57 markets active 8h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 22% −$10
other 5% +$5
sports 1% −$32
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 -3.3% -12.5% 21% 15% -11.2%
all 56 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 12% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 12% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 11% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage575d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $48 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $8 −$1 -7%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$3 +50%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$6 +79%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $10 +$4 +46%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $10 +$7 +75%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 06 $11 +$3 +31%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 06 $16 +$12 +76%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $42 $0 +1%
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 8h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 9h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 27h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 99¢ $22 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.23 · official $17.23 (match) · 256 history records