Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8f3f…8647 crypto 785 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$240 (-2%) realized −$144 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%422W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$515
7 days+$401
14 days+$401
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$255
world 0% −$40
economics 0% −$10
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 628 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 56% -4.8%
≤30d 628 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 56% -4.8%
≤90d 644 +5.7% -4.4% 57% 55% -7.1%
all 780 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 53% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 53% -11.0%
10% -16.1% 49% -19.6%
15% -24.2% 45% -27.3%
20% -31.6% 38% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses422 / 358
Open positions5
Markets (closed)780 / 785
History coverage114d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$22 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$28 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$43 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$43 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$17 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$33 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$33 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$8 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $84 +$102 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$34 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$25 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$34 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$25 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$27 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$44 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$15 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$25 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$19 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$29 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$46 +103%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$24 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$15 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$14 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $70 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $35 −$34 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $20 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $19 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $34 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $34 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $34 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $34 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $34 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $34 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $22 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $23 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $24 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $23 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 2420 history records