Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f41…260e
sports · 129 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$3,449 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,130 · open −$1,995
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$24,547
Realized+$4,130
Unrealized−$1,995
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses52 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions65
Markets (closed)82 / 129
Avg bet$377
Trades / day745.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 65 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,386
7 days+$4,130
14 days+$4,130
30 days+$4,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10,461 $10,863 +$402 (+4%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,112 $3,114 +$2 (+0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,040 $845 −$195 (-19%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $764 $708 −$56 (-7%)
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 68¢ 66¢ $680 $655 −$25 (-4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $526 $577 +$51 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $611 $554 −$57 (-9%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $546 $543 −$3 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Sorana Cirstea 51¢ 50¢ $510 $495 −$15 (-3%)
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 80¢ 78¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $360 $380 +$20 (+6%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $350 $375 +$25 (+7%)
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jesper de Jong 72¢ 81¢ $288 $326 +$38 (+13%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 45¢ 44¢ $315 $311 −$3 (-1%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $270 $292 +$22 (+8%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $279 $280 +$2 (+1%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 47¢ 80¢ $141 $240 +$99 (+70%)
Will Chainlink reach $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 42¢ $435 $233 −$202 (-46%)
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Andreea Prisacariu 54¢ 54¢ $230 $227 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $222 $225 +$3 (+2%)
ITF Casablanca: Maria Garcia Cid vs Aran Teixido Garcia Maria Garcia Cid 66¢ 66¢ $215 $216 +$2 (+1%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $180 $190 +$10 (+6%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Maxim Mrva 45¢ 43¢ $191 $183 −$8 (-4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $172 $165 −$7 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2,166 +$84 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,457 +$29 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2,599 +$34 +1%
ITF Los Angeles: Abigail Haile vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 11 $188 +$50 +27%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $144 +$63 +44%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $572 +$11 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $954 +$142 +15%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $240 +$10 +4%
ITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Olivia Lincer Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Matilde Jorge vs Anastasia Kulikova Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Alena Kovackova Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $4 +$22 +605%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 10 $219 −$219 -100%
ITF Vaasa: Markus Molder vs Matthias Uwe Kask Jun 10 $41 +$14 +35%
ITF Casablanca: Anna Shkutova vs Martina Colmegna Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Irina Balus vs Marta Lombardini Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Messina: Leonardo Primucci vs Maxence Rivet Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Vaasa: Oskari Eerola vs Seydina Andre Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $46 −$46 -100%
ITF Nice: Jenny Lim vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 10 $451 −$451 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Lina Gjorcheska vs Ekaterina Kazionova Jun 10 $805 −$805 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $184 +$216 +117%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $105 +$5 +5%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $167 +$167 +100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,447 +$85 +6%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $270 +$230 +85%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $175 +$127 +72%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $44 +$30 +70%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Mai Hontama Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Dalila Spiteri vs Laura Svatikova Jun 10 $79 −$79 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Lauryn John-Baptiste vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
ITF Monastir: Andrea Roots vs Isabella De Micco Padula Jun 10 $121 −$121 -100%
ITF Nice: Maria Sara Popa vs Yelyzaveta Kotliar Jun 10 $236 −$236 -100%
ITF Monastir: Maddalena Giordano vs Lourdes Ayala Jun 10 $235 −$235 -100%
ITF Monastir: Sofia Avataneo vs Soo Ha Jang Jun 10 $11 +$25 +233%
ITF Kayseri: Semra Aksu vs Alexandra Melnikova Jun 10 $329 +$371 +113%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $305 +$3,290 +1080%
ITF Madrid: Claudia Ferrer Perez vs Paula Cembranos Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 10 $28 +$10 +35%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $435 −$185 -42%
ITF Tokyo: Aishi Das vs Nana Kawagishi Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
ITF Maanshan: Xiaoyin Yang vs Evan Zhu Jun 10 $869 +$231 +27%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $249 −$247 -99%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $682 +$118 +17%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Lyon: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Clement Tabur Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $162 −$162 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ui Su Jeong vs Kateryna Diatlova Jun 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$1,393
sports 31% +$188
world 24% +$488
politics 8% +$74
crypto 0% −$9
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lutsharel Geertruida be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $20 0m
Will Junnosuke Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $29 1m
Will Junnosuke Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $20 2m
Will Koki Ogawa be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY No 91¢ $19 3m
Will Ao Tanaka be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 4m
Will Ritsu Doan be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 4m
Will Ritsu Doan be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 5m
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6m
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 7m
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 89¢ $18 8m
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 8m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Maximilian Beier be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $19 10m
Will Pascal Groß be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 98¢ $20 10m
ITF Casablanca: Maria Garcia Cid vs Aran Teixido Garcia BUY Maria Garcia Cid 66¢ $2 11m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 94¢ $19 12m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 15m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will Willer Ditta be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 82¢ $16 17m
Will Jhon Córdoba be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 91¢ $18 18m
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $19 18m
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will David Ospina be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $19 19m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +45.5% +31.7% 63% 48% -0.1%
≤30d 82 +45.5% +31.7% 63% 48% -0.1%
≤90d 82 +45.5% +31.7% 63% 48% -0.1%
all 82 +45.5% +31.7% 63% 48% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover745.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.7% 48% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here +19.1% 44% -9.6%
15% +7.6% 32% -18.4%
20% -3.0% 24% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,547.48 · official $24,562.60 (match) · 3500 history records