Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f42…cd3c
weather · 473 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,494 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$899 · open −$595
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,138
Realized−$899
Unrealized−$595
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses347 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions51
Markets (closed)422 / 473
History coverage48d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 51 History 422 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$26
14 days−$419
30 days−$885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $690 $706 +$16 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $697 $702 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 97¢ 80¢ $693 $571 −$121 (-18%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $554 $570 +$16 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $548 $563 +$15 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 96¢ 84¢ $545 $476 −$68 (-13%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $399 $424 +$25 (+6%)
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $420 $424 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $386 $421 +$36 (+9%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $394 $417 +$23 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 98¢ 96¢ $416 $407 −$9 (-2%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 97¢ 64¢ $416 $276 −$139 (-33%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 95¢ 60¢ $407 $255 −$152 (-37%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 96¢ 56¢ $410 $237 −$173 (-42%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $178 $175 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? No 86¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 94¢ 78¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$8 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 10 $392 +$25 +6%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$878
weather 38% −$593
other 1% −$4
sports 0% −$21
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 22% -7.1%
≤30d 397 -0.9% -10.4% 84% 29% -12.6%
≤90d 422 -2.7% -12.0% 82% 28% -12.4%
all 422 -2.7% -12.0% 82% 28% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 28% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 13% -20.8%
15% -28.1% 6% -28.4%
20% -35.1% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,137.62 · official $7,137.62 (match) · 1648 history records