Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8f42…b88f world 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$535,257 (+53%) realized +$147,832 · open +$11,031
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate80%122W / 30L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$6,086per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$783est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$138,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31,791
7 days+$29,198
14 days+$25,591
30 days+$28,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$134,656
other 14% +$12,738
sports 2% +$9,011
politics 2% +$1,823
finance 0% +$634
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.6% 60% 60% +27.4%
≤30d 13 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 46% +15.1%
≤90d 144 +23.9% +12.1% 80% 42% +6.2%
all 152 +24.3% +12.5% 80% 42% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 42% +5.9%
10% +1.7% 27% -4.3%
15% ← realistic here -8.1% 20% -13.5%
20% -17.1% 19% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$5,320) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +53% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,403 vs −$778 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.34 per $1 lost it wins $7.34
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$138,729
Realized+$147,832
Unrealized+$11,031
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses122 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$783
Open positions15
Markets (closed)152 / 166
History coverage97d
Avg bet$6,086
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $70,022 $80,040 +$10,018 (+14%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $14,020 $14,333 +$313 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 86¢ 93¢ $11,510 $12,352 +$842 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $6,661 $8,438 +$1,778 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $5,727 $7,306 +$1,580 (+28%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $6,066 $6,222 +$156 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 66¢ 88¢ $2,837 $3,761 +$924 (+33%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 79¢ $2,095 $1,958 −$136 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes 60¢ 31¢ $2,805 $1,449 −$1,356 (-48%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 87¢ 91¢ $1,055 $1,102 +$47 (+4%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 80¢ 90¢ $593 $671 +$78 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 47¢ 10¢ $2,286 $511 −$1,776 (-78%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No $778 $489 −$289 (-37%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 16¢ $1,244 $97 −$1,147 (-92%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Yes 80¢ $444 $0 −$444 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 21¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 12¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Yes 15¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Iran leadership change by May 31? Yes 13¢ $1,626 $0 −$1,626 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29,698 +$16,331 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $19,956 +$15,460 +78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $451 −$451 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $9,400 −$4,009 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $12,059 +$1,867 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 05 $4,111 −$3,874 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $21,954 +$268 +1%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 30 $405 +$106 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$84 +82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4,891 +$3,852 +79%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $289 −$289 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $4,824 −$601 -12%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $5,609 +$2,713 +48%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $103 −$100 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30? May 01 $327 +$32 +10%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,553 +$698 +27%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $290 +$314 +108%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $11,078 +$33 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $55,333 +$1,333 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 25 $2,775 +$931 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $1,420 +$1,540 +108%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $78 −$78 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $163 −$163 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $1,229 +$88 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $325 −$325 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $296 −$296 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,222 +$281 +7%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $1,262 +$224 +18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $2,034 +$1,144 +56%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $19,853 +$2,903 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $444 −$444 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,636 +$184 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $325 +$21 +6%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $4,448 −$1,466 -33%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $225 +$25 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $32,729 +$10,061 +31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $571 −$571 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $4,592 −$1,785 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $1,909 +$2,677 +140%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $629 +$148 +24%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $2,445 +$316 +13%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $3,650 +$471 +13%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 13 $289 +$266 +92%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $1,516 +$365 +24%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $1,121 +$312 +28%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? Apr 11 $237 +$62 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4,000 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $14,508 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,177 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $13,891 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,596 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,390 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $50 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,511 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $2,630 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $601 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,548 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5,135 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2,869 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1,175 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $3,177 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2,787 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5,975 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $91 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $7,264 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138,729.11 · official $138,807.24 (match) · 3500 history records