Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f43…53fa crypto 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%103W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day141.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 48% -9.6%
≤30d 188 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 48% -9.6%
≤90d 188 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 48% -9.6%
all 188 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 48% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 48% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 27% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 11% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses103 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day141.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$43 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$26 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$24 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$55 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$2 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $54 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$8 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$53 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$22 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$18 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$18 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$6 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $13 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $37 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $36 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $52 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 570 history records