Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f44…c470 crypto 437 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-1%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate49%226W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day123.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$190
14 days−$190
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +9.8% -0.7% 57% 24% -12.0%
≤30d 457 +4.3% -5.7% 49% 24% -12.6%
≤90d 457 +4.3% -5.7% 49% 24% -12.6%
all 457 +4.3% -5.7% 49% 24% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 24% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 11% -21.0%
15% -22.9% 5% -28.6%
20% -30.5% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses226 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)457 / 437
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day123.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 457 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -455%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 10 Jun 16 $0 $0 -1028%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 20? Jun 16 $0 $0 +731%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 29? Jun 16 $0 −$8 -5173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$6 -122%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 30? Jun 16 $0 +$3 +9282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 23? Jun 16 $0 −$5 -5501%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 28? Jun 16 $0 −$3 -22709%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 30? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +2071%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$18 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$13 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records