Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f44…02be crypto 122 markets active 4d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%87W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day62.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -2.9% -12.1% 68% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 122 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 39% -10.6%
≤90d 122 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 39% -10.6%
all 122 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 39% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 39% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 23% -19.2%
15% -25.2% 16% -27.0%
20% -32.5% 15% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses87 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$23 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 452 history records