Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f49…9178 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 582d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$251 (-50%) realized −$243 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 582d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$178
sports 24% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$35 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage582d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 36¢ 36¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY 8¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $10 2d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 34¢ $150 581d
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 581d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.01 · official $232.05 (match) · 15 history records