Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8f4f…d8cf crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$240 (+9%) realized +$290 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate78%32W / 9L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$290
7 days+$290
14 days+$290
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$170
other 1% −$13
sports 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +18.1% +6.9% 78% 68% +0.9%
≤30d 41 +18.1% +6.9% 78% 68% +0.9%
≤90d 41 +18.1% +6.9% 78% 68% +0.9%
all 41 +18.1% +6.9% 78% 68% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 68% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -3.3% 49% -8.8%
15% -12.7% 39% -17.6%
20% -21.2% 29% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$33 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$290
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses32 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 52¢ 42¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$12 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $228 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$44 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $127 +$30 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $126 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $127 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $126 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 +$6 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 8m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 17m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $111 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $239 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.26 · official $21.46 · 110 history records