Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f51…b3e6 other 49 markets active 5d ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-19%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$11
politics 28% +$3
other 26% −$66
sports 8% −$13
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.5% -56.1% 0% 0% -41.3%
≤30d 5 -44.6% -49.9% 20% 20% -51.6%
≤90d 8 -36.8% -42.8% 38% 25% -42.1%
all 48 -8.9% -17.6% 52% 29% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 29% -26.4%
10% -25.5% 19% -33.4%
15% -32.7% 12% -39.8%
20% -39.3% 10% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage535d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 24 $1 −$1 -55%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 24 $1 $0 +35%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Clavicular charged again by June 30? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? Mar 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 23 $2 $0 +19%
OKX IPO in 2026? Feb 11 $2 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? Jan 30 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 30 $2 +$3 +132%
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition Nov 01 $2 $0 -10%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 01 $3 $0 -8%
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1? Oct 20 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Sep 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15? Sep 29 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum above $3,600 on August 8? Sep 29 $5 +$2 +41%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Aug 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Aug 06 $2 $0 +29%
Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July? Aug 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday? Aug 06 $2 $0 +12%
XRP all time high before 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Jun 24 $3 +$6 +186%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Kings vs. Utah Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 03 $1 $0 +18%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Red Wings vs. Utah Mar 25 $5 +$7 +144%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday? Mar 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21? Feb 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 06 $86 −$8 -9%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 06 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 23 $50 $0 +1%
Dolphins vs. Jets Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 05 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 05 $5 $0 +3%
Solana above $185 on January 3? Jan 03 $12 $0 -4%
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration? Jan 02 $8 $0 -3%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? Jan 02 $50 −$2 -4%
Ethena crash in 2024? Dec 30 $10 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $1 4d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 4d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 4d
AI bubble burst in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2 4d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 24d
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum BUY Yes 70¢ $2 24d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 76d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? BUY No 74¢ $1 76d
Clavicular charged again by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $2 86d
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 86d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 86d
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 126d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 126d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 126d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 138d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 138d
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 170d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 228d
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition SELL Yes 77¢ $2 228d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 75¢ $3 228d
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition BUY Yes 85¢ $2 240d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 81¢ $3 240d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands BUY Yes 59¢ $2 261d
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 261d
Ethereum above $3,600 on August 8? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 315d
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15? BUY No 77¢ $5 315d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? SELL No 85¢ $2 315d
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 84¢ $2 315d
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? SELL No 76¢ $2 315d
Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 113 history records