Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8f54…1f3e crypto 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$591 (-1%) realized −$592 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate83%207W / 41L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$23
14 days+$17
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$583
other 0% −$21
politics 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.1% -11.5% 78% 44% -9.3%
≤30d 72 -4.7% -13.8% 78% 28% -9.4%
≤90d 159 -2.9% -12.2% 87% 16% -9.4%
all 248 -5.9% -14.8% 83% 16% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 16% -10.1%
10% -23.0% 9% -18.7%
15% -30.4% 7% -26.6%
20% -37.3% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$592
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses207 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)248 / 254
History coverage563d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $998 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $994 +$5 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,200 +$3 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,200 +$4 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,200 +$2 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,200 +$3 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,595 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,599 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $156 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $998 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $1 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $708 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $266 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $124 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1,203 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $1 3d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.64 · official $205.63 (match) · 562 history records