Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8F 0x8f55…4178 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$201 (+17%) realized +$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$54
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$6
other 33% +$84
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 22 +6.8% -3.4% 41% 41% -3.4%
≤90d 35 +11.0% +0.4% 49% 49% -3.1%
all 35 +11.0% +0.4% 49% 49% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 49% -3.1%
10% -9.2% 49% -12.4%
15% -18.0% 49% -20.9%
20% -26.0% 37% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage77d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $106 −$104 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $308 −$4 -1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $47 −$15 -31%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $214 +$86 +40%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $11 +$9 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $27 −$26 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $11 −$8 -70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$60 +279%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $12 −$11 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $16 +$20 +121%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 −$3 -11%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 07 $1 +$2 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$2 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 53m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 56m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 56m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 59m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 37¢ $33 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $76 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $59 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $29 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $2 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $4 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $47 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $92 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $71 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $72 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $73 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $300 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $141 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $73 27h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $20 46h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $11 46h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records