Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f58…232e crypto 82 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3058 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$262 (+2%) realized +$262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +335% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +235% what you keep after slip
Net edge+235%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate48%68W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day3058.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3058 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+293.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +335.0% +293.6% 48% 27% -9.9%
≤30d 142 +335.0% +293.6% 48% 27% -9.9%
≤90d 142 +335.0% +293.6% 48% 27% -9.9%
all 142 +335.0% +293.6% 48% 27% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3058.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +293.6% 27% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here +255.9% 23% -18.5%
15% +221.5% 20% -26.4%
20% +190.0% 20% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +335% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +658% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
37.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$41 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses68 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 82
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day3058.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$109 -12416%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$12 -2068%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$2 -335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$52 -6899%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$19 -2490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$48 -5876%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$20 -3678%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$42 -5474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$176 -24887%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$16 -2501%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$12 -3610%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$36 -5824%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$138 -23257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$105 -22208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$56 -9858%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$1,020 -217119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$10 +2475%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$25 -6404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$20 -4855%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$37 -7346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$5 -2162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$36 -8820%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$38 -11607%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$78 -26726%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$50 -18952%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$195 -77340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$12 -4232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$24 -9039%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$32 +17741%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$36 -16612%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$13 -6106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$27 -17226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$2 +2769%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$15 +12275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$20 +11414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$37 +80586%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$17 +13415%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$55 +270610%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$38 +56893%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$28 +55663%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$22 -20924%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$6 +1250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$33 +935709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$116 +76301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$27 +16531%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$57 +136298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$7 -4262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$79 +52401%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$5 +2502%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$25 +111847%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.36 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records