Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f59…a4e4
crypto · 815 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$138 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$133 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$133
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses520 / 293
Open positions2
Markets (closed)813 / 815
History coverage57d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 813 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +2.2% -7.5% 66% 63% -6.5%
≤30d 305 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 58% -18.2%
≤90d 813 -2.6% -11.8% 64% 60% -12.1%
all 813 -2.6% -11.8% 64% 60% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 60% -12.1%
10% -20.3% 52% -20.5%
15% -28.0% 42% -28.2%
20% -35.0% 29% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $5.15 (match) · 1410 history records