Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f5a…cf07 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$35
politics 26% −$10
sports 24% −$31
crypto 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
culture 3% −$4
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$2
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 118 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage102d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? No 92¢ 91¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $116 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $88 −$2 -2%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $43 $0 +1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $43 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $250 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $231 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $209 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $370 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $157 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $57 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $49 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $50 8h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $50 9h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $50 15h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 16h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $61 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $61 32h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 33h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 41h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $32 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $31 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $19 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $57 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $43 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $66 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $66 4d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.31 · official $56.31 (match) · 486 history records