Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f5b…ba31 sports 485 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$928 (-5%) realized −$672 · open −$256
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%218W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$184
30 days−$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$914
crypto 5% −$91
other 3% −$146
world 1% −$42
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 44 -12.5% -20.9% 43% 43% -39.9%
≤90d 351 -24.4% -31.6% 40% 38% -22.2%
all 484 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 42% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 42% -14.1%
10% -24.1% 37% -22.3%
15% -31.4% 33% -29.8%
20% -38.1% 27% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$672
Unrealized−$256
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses218 / 266
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions1
Markets (closed)484 / 485
History coverage125d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh $258 $2 −$256 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +41%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $81 −$79 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $94 −$93 -99%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins Jun 04 $128 −$126 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $28 +$23 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $149 +$63 +43%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $71 +$52 +73%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 01 $25 −$1 -4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $148 −$142 -96%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 31 $76 +$72 +95%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 31 $76 −$76 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $47 −$5 -10%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $6 +$11 +186%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 −$6 -27%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $42 −$13 -31%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Sergei Pavlovich win by KO or TKO? May 30 $12 +$4 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $14 +$3 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $12 +$4 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $14 +$3 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? May 30 $20 −$6 -27%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 30 $24 −$8 -32%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 30 $80 −$37 -46%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $9 +$7 +79%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 30 $8 +$9 +108%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $172 +$123 +71%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins t May 29 $9 +$8 +93%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $56 −$43 -76%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals - Who w May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 28 $29 −$29 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India - Who wins the t May 28 $18 +$15 +83%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 26 $9 +$9 +97%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins t May 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 24 $97 −$97 -100%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 24 $183 −$183 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $36 +$17 +46%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings - Who wins May 23 $19 +$17 +89%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $87 −$87 -100%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh May 20 $36 +$28 +78%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $117 +$3 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Who w May 20 $61 +$57 +93%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $49 +$39 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $60 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 10¢ $205 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 33¢ $81 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 10d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 57¢ $94 12d
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins BUY England 55¢ $62 17d
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins BUY England 58¢ $66 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 49¢ $28 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 55¢ $28 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $28 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 31¢ $190 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 19¢ $123 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 67¢ $123 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 48¢ $7 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 33¢ $29 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 36¢ $5 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 41¢ $5 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 18¢ $22 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Mirra Andreeva 63¢ $24 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 44¢ $11 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Mirra Andreeva 64¢ $25 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 43¢ $25 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 27¢ $13 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 20¢ $26 19d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans $6 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 45¢ $148 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 99¢ $148 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 50¢ $76 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 1279 history records