Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8f64…660f crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$37 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$117
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -25.8% -32.9% 28% 8% -14.4%
≤30d 74 -25.8% -32.9% 27% 8% -14.4%
≤90d 74 -25.8% -32.9% 27% 8% -14.4%
all 74 -25.8% -32.9% 27% 8% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.9% 8% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.3% 3% -22.5%
15% -45.2% 1% -30.0%
20% -50.5% 1% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 54
Open positions7
Markets (closed)74 / 81
History coverage10d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-76%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? No 11¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 10¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $146 +$24 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $244 +$28 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $303 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $52 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $19 −$6 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 11 $102 −$8 -8%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $89 −$5 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 11 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -41%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 11 $44 −$8 -19%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $54 −$15 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 11 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -43%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 11 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 11 $35 −$8 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $183 −$9 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 11 $129 −$21 -16%
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -38%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 11 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 11 $136 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$6 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$5 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$3 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $8 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 91¢ $3 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $6 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 88¢ $66 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 11¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 25¢ $20 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 78¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 82¢ $9 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 76¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 84¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 79¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 77¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 76¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 75¢ $5 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 72¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 74¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 82¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 79¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 86¢ $23 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 83¢ $6 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.71 · official $18.72 (match) · 630 history records