Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f66…b986
other · 282 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$921 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,351 · open +$337
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$918
Realized−$1,351
Unrealized+$337
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses63 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)266 / 282
Avg bet$236
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%
Chart Positions 16 History 266 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$374
14 days−$404
30 days−$880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $426 $816 +$390 (+92%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+150%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $32 $21 −$12 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-55%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $401 $0 −$401 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $147 −$100 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $215 +$135 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $413 −$401 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $211 −$210 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $19 −$6 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $15 −$10 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $56 −$56 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $55 +$25 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $35 +$65 +185%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $4 +$10 +239%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $17 −$16 -93%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $16 −$15 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $75 −$72 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $28 +$497 +1752%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $527 −$264 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $185 +$30 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $169 −$80 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $27 −$21 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $56 −$53 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $68 +$432 +637%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $142 −$23 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $130 +$20 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $6 −$4 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $7 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 95% −$313
crypto 3% −$233
world 1% −$460
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 42m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $155 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $140 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $45 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $99 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $140 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $38 21h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $45 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $144 25h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 27h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $190 43h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 44h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 44h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 44h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 44h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.3% -63.2% 25% 25% -49.4%
≤30d 41 +24.4% +12.5% 17% 17% -38.9%
≤90d 151 -13.1% -21.3% 21% 20% -25.1%
all 266 -16.9% -24.8% 24% 21% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 21% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 17% -19.7%
15% -38.6% 14% -27.5%
20% -44.6% 12% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $917.50 · official $917.50 (match) · 3500 history records