Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8f67…03fc other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,013 (-29%) realized −$3,013 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate52%31W / 29L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$1,807
other 22% −$1,395
crypto 11% −$41
weather 8% +$1
world 4% +$44
politics 2% −$8
tech 1% −$3
economics 1% +$5
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.1% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 2 -47.5% -52.5% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 3 -27.9% -34.8% 67% 33% -4.9%
all 60 -30.0% -36.7% 52% 25% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 25% -39.4%
10% -42.7% 18% -45.2%
15% -48.3% 12% -50.5%
20% -53.3% 7% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$169 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$3,013
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage556d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 90¢ 89¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 19 $86 +$4 +5%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 29 $72 +$8 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 23 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 23 $57 +$3 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 06 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 2 Dec 03 $799 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? Dec 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 02 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 1? Dec 02 $999 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Dec 01 $870 +$130 +15%
LAR vs. Panthers Nov 30 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $112 −$112 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 30 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 15 $49 +$11 +24%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? Sep 23 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? Sep 23 $952 −$390 -41%
Brewers vs. Padres Sep 22 $490 −$490 -100%
Lions vs. Ravens Sep 22 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Packers vs. Browns Sep 22 $210 +$790 +376%
Raiders vs. Commanders Sep 22 $870 +$630 +72%
Saints vs. Seahawks Sep 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Falcons vs. Panthers Sep 21 $1,311 −$1,311 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $408 −$408 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 20 $40 +$10 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 3? Sep 13 $39 +$16 +41%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum above $4200 on September 3? Sep 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Sep 01 $36 +$12 +32%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31? Sep 01 $43 +$5 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on August 20? Aug 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? Aug 03 $13 −$13 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? Jul 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? Jul 21 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 15 $28 +$12 +41%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? Apr 15 $10 +$15 +150%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Apr 15 $47 +$3 +6%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 21 $7 +$10 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 29d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $86 50d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 103d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $72 115d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY No 2¢ $6 149d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 93¢ $46 161d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $57 163d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $93 192d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? BUY Down 1¢ $11 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? BUY Down 1¢ $0 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? BUY Down 1¢ $1 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? BUY Down 1¢ $6 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? BUY Down 1¢ $1 198d
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $238 198d
Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 2 BUY No 100¢ $799 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 1? BUY Down 100¢ $999 199d
LAR vs. Panthers BUY LAR 85¢ $255 200d
Will Girona win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $225 200d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Thunder 87¢ $870 200d
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 14¢ $112 200d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL Yes 100¢ $70 200d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 96¢ $7 215d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 96¢ $60 215d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? BUY No 26¢ $208 268d
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? BUY Yes 75¢ $562 269d
Brewers vs. Padres BUY Brewers 49¢ $490 269d
Lions vs. Ravens BUY Ravens 69¢ $1,035 269d
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? BUY No 26¢ $390 269d
Saints vs. Seahawks BUY Saints 23¢ $28 271d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.55 · official $44.38 (match) · 109 history records