Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f6c…6822
sports · 21 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$73 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$48
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$27
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 71¢ 71¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 46¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 19¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Argentina vs. Iceland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$2 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $24 +$4 +18%
Argentina vs. Iceland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $8 $0 -5%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -61%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Castellón vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $8 +$31 +413%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $2 $0 -12%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $3 $0 -3%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$23
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 20¢ $2 57m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $2 58m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 81¢ $1 59m
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $7 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $7 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $7 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $12 1h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $6 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 79¢ $57 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 79¢ $81 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $3 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $8 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $7 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $4 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $3 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $5 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $3 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $4 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 51¢ $0 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 51¢ $4 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 51¢ $0 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 75¢ $5 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 53¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.2% +1.5% 71% 43% +15.4%
≤30d 17 +9.0% -1.4% 59% 35% +13.7%
≤90d 17 +9.0% -1.4% 59% 35% +13.7%
all 17 +9.0% -1.4% 59% 35% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 35% +13.7%
10% -10.8% 18% +2.8%
15% -19.4% 6% -7.1%
20% -27.3% 6% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.35 · official $48.35 (match) · 96 history records