Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f6d…65dc sports 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$2
politics 21% −$2
other 18% −$2
economics 10% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 173 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 159
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage172d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $273 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $173 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $233 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $131 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $89 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $8 13d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $8 13d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $41 25d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $33 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $33 38d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 122d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 122d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $42 122d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $42 122d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $43 122d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $43 122d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $7 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $37 122d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 95¢ $7 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $37 122d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 122d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 122d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 122d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 122d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $38 122d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $38 122d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $43 122d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $43 122d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $43 122d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $43 122d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $40 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.55 · official $26.55 (match) · 626 history records