Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f6e…92f1 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$659 (-7%) realized −$685 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$918now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days−$1,036
14 days−$1,036
30 days−$607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$256
sports 8% −$30
other 7% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -24.4% -31.6% 62% 24% -26.5%
≤30d 24 -21.2% -28.7% 62% 29% -16.4%
≤90d 24 -21.2% -28.7% 62% 29% -16.4%
all 24 -21.2% -28.7% 62% 29% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 29% -16.4%
10% -35.5% 25% -24.4%
15% -41.8% 17% -31.7%
20% -47.5% 12% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$147 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$918
Realized−$685
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage28d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $546 $413 −$134 (-24%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 100¢ $200 $351 +$151 (+75%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Over 76¢ 100¢ $76 $100 +$24 (+32%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No $70 $55 −$15 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $21 +$12 +56%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $1,700 +$91 +5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $500 +$12 +2%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $99 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $465 +$5 +1%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,026 −$300 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,576 −$412 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $86 +$22 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $35 +$1 +4%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $39 +$4 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $512 +$288 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $435 +$205 +47%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 66¢ $33 20m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 33m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $76 34m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $69 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $1 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $380 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 57¢ $9 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $8 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 61¢ $49 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 62¢ $56 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 63¢ $3 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 63¢ $3 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $21 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $56 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $1,000 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 70¢ $82 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 70¢ $109 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 10h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $75 32h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $172 34h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 34h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 34h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $246 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $86 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $918.27 · official $918.27 (match) · 193 history records