Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f6f…159e politics 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$699 (+0%) realized +$699 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$1,841per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$31
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$162
other 36% −$179
sports 13% +$989
world 3% −$8
culture 2% −$10
economics 2% −$5
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 62 -7.3% -16.1% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 131 -5.4% -14.4% 9% 6% -9.5%
all 168 +0.8% -8.8% 16% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 12% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 12% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 10% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,838) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$11 · ×7.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$699
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,841
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,892 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $482 +$2 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $3,632 −$5 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,473 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,527 −$5 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,989 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,644 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $72 +$70 +97%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,300 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,360 −$3 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,618 −$4 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,121 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,648 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,728 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $4,788 −$6 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $5,567 −$8 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $5,531 −$9 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,101 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,102 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,197 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,292 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,465 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,696 −$4 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $74 +$44 +60%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $8,049 −$9 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,283 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 17m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $207 2h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $207 3h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $211 6h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 8h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,022 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,285 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,287 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,471 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,473 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,364 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,366 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,349 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,342 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,343 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,578 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,580 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,147 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,149 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,143 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,145 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $909 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $911 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,050 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $167 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 595 history records