Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8F 0x8f71…9b87 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$177 (-27%) realized −$215 · open +$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-16.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-7.6%	-16.4%	56%	44%	-36.8%
≤30d	9	-7.6%	-16.4%	56%	44%	-36.8%
≤90d	9	-7.6%	-16.4%	56%	44%	-36.8%
all	9	-7.6%	-16.4%	56%	44%	-36.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.4%	44%	-36.8%
10%	-24.4%	44%	-42.8%
15%	-31.7%	33%	-48.3%
20%	-38.4%	33%	-53.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$87 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$88

Realized−$215

Unrealized+$38

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5	Over	38¢	66¢	$50	$87	+$38 (+75%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners	Jun 24	$51	+$68	+134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$51	+$3	+7%
Croatia leading at halftime?	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$51	+$47	+93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$51	+$36	+70%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$50	+$14	+27%
Belgium leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	−$200	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5	BUY Over	38¢	$51	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL No	41¢	$54	20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	37¢	$51	21h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$51	21h
Croatia leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$51	44h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners	BUY Over	43¢	$51	2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	78¢	$50	3d
Belgium leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.50 · official $87.50 (match) · 16 history records