Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8f74…c469 sports 1672 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$99 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1646W / 23L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$23
other 18% +$65
weather 17% +$14
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$2
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 274 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1669 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 1669 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1646 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1669 / 1672
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ $0 $50 +$50 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $50 19m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $50 19m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 22m
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $50 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $50 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 47h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Pegula 100¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.93 · official $149.93 (match) · 3500 history records