Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f76…ba12 crypto 47 markets active 20h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$772 (-3%) realized −$772 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$3,594
14 days−$3,942
30 days−$1,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$2,238
finance 19% −$3,594
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 0% -68.5%
≤30d 47 -16.5% -24.5% 53% 30% -13.7%
≤90d 47 -16.5% -24.5% 53% 30% -13.7%
all 47 -16.5% -24.5% 53% 30% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 30% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 17% -22.0%
15% -38.3% 6% -29.5%
20% -44.3% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$963) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$294 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$772
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage14d
Avg bet$624
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $963 −$28 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $478 +$8 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $4,067 −$3,574 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $47 −$24 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $36 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $75 +$4 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $91 −$65 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $82 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $77 −$66 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $46 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $137 −$62 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $56 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $47 −$25 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $179 +$26 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $102 −$44 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $103 −$43 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $77 −$31 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $153 +$60 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $77 +$48 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $353 −$349 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $1,286 −$909 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $1,777 −$563 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $519 −$519 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $3,086 +$2,074 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $3,549 +$838 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $1,009 +$145 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $2,551 +$794 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $2,532 +$339 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 03 $1,513 +$116 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $1,519 +$260 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $1,266 +$280 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $506 +$79 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 65¢ $3 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 58¢ $3 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 1¢ $6 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 2¢ $22 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $30 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 7¢ $36 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 7¢ $36 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 8¢ $17 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 58¢ $486 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $203 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 55¢ $3 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 53¢ $121 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 55¢ $116 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $34 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $480 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $60 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $487 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $128 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $38 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records