Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f7d…2787 crypto 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%12W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$42
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses12 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage36d
Avg bet$732
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,039 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,036 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,033 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,031 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,029 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,027 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $1,017 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,010 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,005 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $998 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,039 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $982 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $54 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,033 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,031 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,029 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,027 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $249 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $765 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $984 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $26 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $998 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 32 history records