Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8f7e…cbbd sports 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,714 (+8%) realized +$3,854 · open −$140
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%111W / 103L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,262
30 days+$1,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$3,863
other 15% −$293
crypto 1% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 +3.6% -6.3% 59% 59% +9.0%
≤90d 89 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 53% +1.2%
all 214 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 51% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 51% -2.4%
10% -18.3% 51% -11.7%
15% -26.2% 50% -20.3%
20% -33.4% 47% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$168 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$3,854
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses111 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage170d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 56¢ $519 $379 −$140 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $786 +$930 +118%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $403 +$477 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $231 −$227 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $300 +$238 +79%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $298 +$196 +66%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $445 −$438 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $710 +$93 +13%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $641 +$430 +67%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $442 −$437 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $498 +$216 +43%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $143 +$133 +93%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $199 +$246 +123%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 23 $307 −$303 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $503 +$199 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $45 −$44 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $196 −$193 -98%
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $223 −$218 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $299 +$214 +72%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $214 +$163 +76%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $152 +$214 +141%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $161 +$144 +89%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 May 15 $157 −$155 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $168 +$145 +86%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 11 $99 +$123 +124%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $301 +$230 +76%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $300 +$178 +59%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) May 10 $203 −$200 -98%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 May 10 $253 +$170 +67%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $296 +$287 +97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $201 +$166 +82%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 10 $178 +$282 +158%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $186 −$184 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5 May 10 $247 +$239 +97%
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner May 09 $127 −$125 -98%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 09 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $195 −$192 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 09 $303 −$298 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $128 −$125 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $142 −$140 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $355 +$341 +96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $395 −$390 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $196 −$194 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $180 −$176 -98%
Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5 May 01 $197 +$193 +98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $232 +$156 +67%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 01 $294 +$206 +70%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 01 $193 −$190 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 01 $201 +$159 +79%
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5) Apr 26 $300 −$296 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $523 1h
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $1,716 11d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 45¢ $786 11d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $880 11d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 45¢ $403 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $231 11d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL paiN 100¢ $538 11d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 99¢ $493 11d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 55¢ $300 12d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 59¢ $298 12d
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 50¢ $445 12d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $744 12d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $378 12d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $878 12d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 49¢ $438 12d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $442 12d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster $58 12d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Otto Virtanen 46¢ $193 12d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 47¢ $203 12d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 49¢ $332 12d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $714 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $276 25d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 69¢ $498 25d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $143 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $445 26d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY EDward Gaming 44¢ $199 26d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $307 26d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $702 26d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 71¢ $503 27d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 10¢ $45 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.96 · official $378.96 (match) · 359 history records