Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f81…cc16
crypto · 1567 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$111 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$731 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses595 / 972
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1567 / 1567
History coverage77d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 1567 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$108
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$580
other 20% −$85
sports 4% −$67
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $23 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 11h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -30.6% -37.2% 35% 35% -29.7%
≤30d 500 -11.2% -19.7% 40% 38% -19.2%
≤90d 1567 -9.4% -18.0% 38% 37% -16.1%
all 1567 -9.4% -18.0% 38% 37% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 37% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 36% -24.1%
15% -33.0% 35% -31.4%
20% -39.6% 32% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records