Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f83…1c48
other · 53 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$102 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$102 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$9
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage600d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $122 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 18 $6 +$5 +70%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 25 $18 +$12 +63%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $82 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $13,532 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $21 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $16 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $159 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $406 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 80% −$14
politics 11% −$8
other 7% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$83
world 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 35h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $9 3d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $11 19d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 25d
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $6 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 31d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -32.9%
≤30d 15 -2.1% -11.4% 13% 7% -10.8%
≤90d 39 -9.5% -18.1% 15% 5% -14.1%
all 52 -7.2% -16.1% 17% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 4% -10.1%
10% -24.1% 4% -18.7%
15% -31.4% 4% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.09 · official $9.09 (match) · 264 history records