Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f83…337a other 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-32%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$33
sports 26% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 33% -40.2%
≤30d 9 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 33% -40.2%
≤90d 9 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 33% -40.2%
all 9 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 33% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -40.2%
10% -29.5% 22% -45.9%
15% -36.3% 22% -51.1%
20% -42.6% 22% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$14 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $9 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $9 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 58¢ $12 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 57¢ $13 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $44 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records