Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8f87…f334 sports 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$475 (+1%) realized +$497 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%80W / 59L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days+$430
14 days+$430
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2,869
other 27% −$2,224
crypto 1% −$342
world 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +30.4% +18.0% 14% 14% +18.2%
≤30d 15 +21.7% +10.1% 13% 13% +10.7%
≤90d 135 -13.2% -21.5% 58% 28% -9.0%
all 139 -12.6% -20.9% 58% 29% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 29% -9.0%
10% -28.5% 20% -17.7%
15% -35.4% 14% -25.7%
20% -41.7% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$159 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$497
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses80 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 143
History coverage108d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Yes $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes $63 $50 −$13 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $104 −$101 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $103 +$522 +510%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $99 +$1,109 +1116%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch May 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF end in a draw? May 15 $3,270 +$1,725 +53%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $3,403 −$26 -1%
Cordoba: Guido Justo vs Franco Roncadelli May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes May 15 $3,159 +$301 +10%
Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic May 15 $2,907 +$242 +8%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 15 $2,005 +$913 +46%
Cordoba: Franco Roncadelli vs Nicolas Kicker May 14 $1,804 +$150 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $1,592 +$261 +16%
Oeiras 4: Petr Brunclik vs Jaime Faria May 14 $26 +$9 +34%
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Zizou Bergs May 14 $500 +$1,085 +217%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,769 −$1,769 -100%
Aix en Provence: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Tabilo May 02 $996 +$783 +79%
Abidjan: Karim Bennani vs Paul Jubb Apr 23 $1,211 −$1,187 -98%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $1,202 +$9 +1%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 23 $1,110 +$92 +8%
Madrid Open: Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini Apr 23 $1,000 +$110 +11%
Madrid Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm Apr 23 $500 −$488 -98%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Miomir Kecmanovic Apr 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $344 −$344 -100%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Apr 19 $331 +$13 +4%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $321 +$10 +3%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $290 +$32 +11%
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $282 +$8 +3%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $268 +$14 +5%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $247 +$21 +9%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $241 +$6 +2%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $227 +$14 +6%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $219 +$8 +4%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $206 +$10 +5%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $196 +$12 +6%
Will SC Bastia win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $75 +$1 +2%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $185 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $64 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes $72 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 28h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 28h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $103 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $57 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $48 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $103 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $103 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 5d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $99 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $3 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 11¢ $95 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 11¢ $1 29d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 36¢ $2 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $12 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $19 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $1 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $32 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $6 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $2 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $2 37d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Sebastian Ofner 39¢ $12 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.37 · official $225.72 · 470 history records