Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8f88…ff55 weather 1337 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-1%) realized −$116 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate91%1206W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$26
14 days+$34
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$106
other 20% +$3
finance 6% +$5
tech 3% −$12
crypto 2% −$19
sports 1% $0
politics 0% −$19
world 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 366 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 1324 -1.4% -10.8% 91% 8% -10.2%
all 1324 -1.4% -10.8% 91% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 8% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1206 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1324 / 1337
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 17? No 99¢ 50¢ $29 $15 −$14 (-49%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 17? No 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 17? No 99¢ 84¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 97¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? Jun 16 $105 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $550 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $70 +$1 +2%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $72 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $201 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 15h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 17h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 18h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 20h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 21h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 22h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $40 23h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $30 23h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $50 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $21 23h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 23h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 23h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 23h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 36h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 37h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 37h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.21 · official $395.03 (match) · 3500 history records