Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8f88…ca51 sports 797 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30,521 (-36%) realized −$30,519 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%293W / 549L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$1,079est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,865
7 days−$14,283
14 days−$14,093
30 days−$14,344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$6,733
other 6% −$114
world 5% +$1,206
crypto 1% +$1,117
politics 1% +$58
economics 0% +$130
culture 0% −$161
finance 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -5.4% -14.4% 30% 30% -61.6%
≤30d 255 -5.3% -14.3% 32% 31% -48.3%
≤90d 664 -2.7% -11.9% 35% 34% -26.5%
all 842 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 33% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 33% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 31% -31.7%
15% -26.9% 30% -38.3%
20% -34.1% 28% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$102 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$903
Realized−$30,519
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses293 / 549
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,079
Open positions13
Markets (closed)842 / 797
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 842 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ 100¢ $76 $200 +$124 (+163%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 76¢ 88¢ $152 $177 +$25 (+16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $130 $140 +$10 (+7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $106 $140 +$34 (+32%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 53¢ 100¢ $66 $125 +$59 (+89%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 42¢ 34¢ $63 $52 −$12 (-18%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $53 $25 −$28 (-53%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $124 $19 −$105 (-85%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $66 $12 −$55 (-83%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-89%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-90%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Jun 17 $245 −$245 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -84%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $206 −$211 -102%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$41 +1139%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $1 +$25 +2504%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $32 −$44 -135%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $4,924 −$9,464 -192%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Raptors Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 17 $95 −$40 -42%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Transylvania Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Olga Danilovic Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Jun 17 $250 −$263 -105%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$40 -74%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jun 17 $16 −$27 -168%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -101%
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $35 −$30 -86%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -189%
Open Sud de France: Martin Damm vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 76¢ $5 14m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 76¢ $147 14m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 39¢ $26 21m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 39¢ $2 21m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 45¢ $37 24m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $81 25m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 51¢ $78 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $66 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $79 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $70 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $200 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $2 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $118 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $16 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $0 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $2 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $76 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $47 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $130 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 8¢ $21 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $60 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $22 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.83 · official $902.84 (match) · 3500 history records