Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

8F 0x8f8b…d86c other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$43 (+12%) realized +$49 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day10.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+13.8%	+2.9%	33%	33%	+36.4%
≤30d	3	+13.8%	+2.9%	33%	33%	+36.4%
≤90d	3	+13.8%	+2.9%	33%	33%	+36.4%
all	3	+13.8%	+2.9%	33%	33%	+36.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.9%	33%	+36.4%
10%	-6.9%	33%	+23.3%
15%	-15.9%	33%	+11.4%
20%	-24.2%	33%	+0.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$2 · ×27.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×13.76 per $1 lost it wins $13.76

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$139

Realized+$49

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day10.2

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$20	$16	−$4 (-21%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$2	-16%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$2	-16%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$61	+$45	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	40m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	41m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France?	SELL Yes	8¢	$9	41m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France?	SELL Yes	8¢	$9	41m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$106	14h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$61	26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN	BUY	37¢	$123	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.81 · official $138.81 (match) · 11 history records